Star Date 22 October 2018 Monday

Captain's Log

Happy Monday folks! :)

We covered a lot in today's video with an explanation as to why we think NOAA will be wrong on their warm winter outlook - we completely disagree!

In the near-termTHIS WEEK (22-28 OCT) is the coldest in 13 years for the Eastern U.S. and 4th coldest of the past 30 years. The Pacific Northwest remains the warm spot. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.

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The remnants of cat 4 Hurricane Willa will bring heavier rain across Texas midweek with the potential some of this energy/moisture results in a Nor'easter by the weekend. For the U.S. overall the week is the coldest in 5 years, 7th coldest in 30 years and slightly drier than last year ranking 13th wettest of the past 30 years.

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NEXT WEEK (29 OCT - 4 NOV) a very strong surge of cold weather invades the Western 2/3rds of the country with a warm up finally returning to the East. This strong cold front will sweep off the East Coast by 5 November ushering a return to much colder weather in the East. For the U.S. overall the week looks to trend coldest in 7 years and #1 wettest.

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Since meteorological Fall started 1 September the pattern has made a big flip flop going from a warm September to a very cold October. Since 10 October the U.S. overall has been the coldest in 9 years and 4th coldest of the past 30 years.

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Seasonal snowfall to date is the most in 9 years for the U.S. overall with many areas from the Rockies to New England already having their first snows of the season.

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So why do we strongly disagree with the warm Winter outlook from NOAA? Many reason and many cycles. The one cycle most key in on is El Niño and this is a weak central Modoki based event, very different than a full-fledged strong El Niño like that a few years ago.

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The other factor is "The Blob" of really warm water off Alaska and British Colombia. This typically allows for a big high pressure to build in this region causing the jet stream to go much further north into Canada (warm) but then results in a downstream buckle in the Eastern part of North America (cold).

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This creates a negative AO pattern which are very conducive to cold/snowy weather for the Eastern half of the U.S. Combined with a sub-tropical Jet Stream and a very warm Gulf Stream off the U.S. East Coast, the threat for bigger Nor'easters are also likely. Combined with the solar minimum cycle - weakest in 100 to 300 years you have a lot of climate factors and statistics teamed up for an exciting Winter assuming you enjoy cold/snow.

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NOAA's data shows a very big difference between a strong El Niño and a weak one.

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Audits from academics at the University of Miami have proven over the past 11 years that WTI's year-ahead forecast is much more accurate (83% of the time) than NOAAs month ahead outlooks, let alone their seasonal Winter outlooks.

SLIDE 1 - Winter Temp Map LOG 12

For both the U.S. and Canada we have the Winter the coldest and snowiest in 5 yearswith a potentially very cold January and especially February when we think you'll hear the Polar Vortex has shifted from Northern Canada to the Great Lakes of Southern Canada.

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Finally, we thought we'd put your odds of winning the billion dollar lottery into perspective. You actually have a much better chance of earning a billion dollars on your own efforts (1 in 750,000) vs the 1 in 292,201,338 odds with the lottery. You have a much better chance of being injured by a hail stone (1 in 5.1 million), being hit by lightning and surviving (1 in 750,000), being killed in a flood (1 in 30,000) and of course dying (1 in 1). :) But if you win, remember your friends at wt360. ;)

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Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for daily updates.Facebook,Twitter,YouTube,PinterestandLinkedin

- Captain Kirk out.