Star Date 23 October 2017 Monday

Captain's Log
Happy Monday!

Enjoy the last bit of warmer weather as the first big Fall plunge of Arctic air is headed for the Central and Eastern U.S. this week into November! We in part can thank once Super Typhoon Lan (hit Fuji - Tokyo Japan yesterday) for heading north and displacing some of the polar air, sending it plunging southward into the U.S. What goes up (Typhoon)...something else comes down (Arctic blast). CLICK ON MAPS FOR LARGER VIEW


As the cold air moves in there is the risk for the first decent snowstorm, 4-8" for the Upper Midwest (Minnesota) Thursday into Friday. Then interior New England and downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario likely to get their first accumulation snowfall as we transition into the first few days of November. Also a slight chance we see a weak tropical storm in the Western Caribbean but most likely stays south of Cuba and fizzles without impacting the U.S.


This cold blast is pretty impressive, especially after record hot conditions in late October and November last year. For the North Central U.S. the next couple weeks are the coldest in 11 years, Southeast coldest in 9 years, South Central coldest in 8 years. For the U.S. overall the 24 Oct - 4 Nov period is the coldest in 4 years and 2nd wettest in 30+ years; a wholesale change from last year's #1 record hot period in 121 years and 2nd driest in decades.


This will bring a huge surge in cold weather seasonal demand for the Eastern half of the U.S. Here at wt360 we have what's called the "Power of 1 degree". Every 1F colder year-over-year there is a 2% increase in hot coffee sales, 10F colder 20% increase. Jeans show 2%, Fleece 3% increase per degree colder, coats 5%, mouse traps 7%, firelogs 8%, portable heaters 10% and most volatile is electric blankets at 24% increase in sales per degree colder. So, a lot of happy retailers over the next couple weeks in the Eastern U.S. with a great end to Q3 and start of Q4. The Eastern U.S. is actually one of the much colder spots than anywhere else on Earth. For the U.S. overall the last week of October into early November trends about 8 degree colder than last year and 1-2 degrees below average so do the math - big surge in seasonal sales!


In addition to Typhoon LAN being one catalyst the other factor is an emerging La Nina pattern with many areas in the oceans trending much colder than this time last year. Colder oceans, weak sun cycle, above average Eastern Siberia snow cover and good old statistics all add up to a dramatically different later half of Fall and Winter than last year.


It was an honor to sponsor WordFM's "Worship in the Round" bringing three Christian bands (Building 429, Josh Wilson and Christ August) to the Lehigh Valley of PA. It was a great night for the 1,000+ that attended.

Earlier in the week I had the pleasure of sitting on a panel with 9 other local CEOs forLehigh Valley Business "90 ideas in 90 minutes." Anyone whose seen my present knows I usually take 45 minutes and this was 10 ideas in 5 minutes...that's warp speed! :)

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Have a great week folks! - Capt Kirk out.