Happy Monday folks!

LAST WEEK (19-25 SEP): was a very warm week for most of us with the nation trending #1 warmest in 25+ years with temperatures trending +5F above average nationally. Rainfall was the wettest in 3 years but trending near average for the U.S. overall. The hardest hit areas with some flooding was coastal North Carolina/Virginia where over 10" fell and more heavy rain for the Upper Midwest (MN-WI) with 5-7" amounts.

THIS WEEK (26 SEP - 2 OCT): the tropics likely to get about as much attention as the Presidential debates as we could have our first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic Basin. That's nothing new for Taiwan as they are about to get hit for the 3rd time this year from a potentially super Typhoon Megi tomorrow.

26 sept 1

Then all eyes will turn to the Caribbean for what could become Major Hurricane Matthew. Models seem pretty certain on a stronger hurricane but the track is up in the air. Some say it will get caught up in a cold front and track up and off the East Coast but others take it more toward the Gulf of Mexico. Any track beyond 5 days can have several hundred mile error so it must be watched closely.

26 sept 2

For the U.S. overall the week is a bit cooler trending coolest in 7 years (near average)for the U.S. overall with rainfall the driest in 3 years (below average). Global temperature and precipitation trends for the week noted below.

26 sept 3

26 sept 4

NEXT WEEK (3-9 OCT): All eyes (pun intended) on Matthew as the U.S. could be impacted by a major hurricane. National temperatures will be even cooler trending 7th coldest of the past 25 years and wettest in 3 years. These are favorable conditions for retailers selling early Fall merchandise and the hurricane threat is great for home center storm merchandise sales.

September looks like it will end up 3rd warmest of the past 25+ years (2.2F above average) but cooler than last year's record warm month for the U.S. overall. Rainfall will be 13th driest of the past 25 years which is basically near average for the U.S. but still the wettest in 5 years.

Have a great week folks! - Capt Kirk out.

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