Happy TGIF! :)
This weekend (30-31 July)looks like a gully washer in the Northeast, we'll take it after a very dry Spring and Summer to date. A strong cold front brings a temporary cool down to the Central U.S. before another heat-dome moves back in for August.
Next week (1-7 August)heat dome #2 moves back into the Central U.S. with 90s to low 100s making it the 3rd hottest start to August in 28 years, hottest since 2012. In the Pacific Northwest it's the coolest start to August in 10 years. We'll need to watch the tropics as activity historically becomes exponentially more active as we get into middle August. The Gulf of Mexico is very warm and per NOAA the water heat energy is at levels not seen since 2005.
Chinacontinues to have a near record shattering wet Summer and that gets worse as soon to be Typhoon Carina is likely to hit South China the middle of Next Week. Record flooding is having a major impact on both their infrastructure and crops. Classic La Nina, +PDO, +AMO pattern with dry Summers giving way to this epic rainfall fromIndia to Southeast Asia, Chinainto Australia.
Brazil continues to be near record dry for the country overall which again is a classic La Nina weather pattern. This will have devastating impacts to their main crops going in September.
For ourfarmer friends, thank you for the hundreds of photos of your corn samples. Clearly you are painting a different story than the USDA's overly optimistic outlook. Most all of you made comments like, "the crop looks awesome from the road, but the corn itself shows major issues". What's amazing is that many of these areas are in the heart of the Corn Belt with ample July rainfall but again July rainfall has statistically next to zero correlation to national corn yields (r2 = 8%) vs June-July high temperatures and count of 90F days that has 82% cause and effect relationship.
Wall Street only knows what the USDA and their from the road crop tours are saying and they think this is the biggest/best looking crop in history and it might be from a good looking plant perspective but the corn yield certainly isn't the best looking in history and clearly showing the stress from June hot/dry and July heat-wave during pollination. We'll knock these yields down even further with a hot start to August in the heart of the WCB.
Have a great weekend folks! - Capt Kirk out.