And we have tropical system #15 in the Atlantic - Cat 1 Hurricane Oscar that will turn Northeast and race toward Ireland. Likely to reach Cat 2 level then weaken.
This officially makes Weather Trends year-ahead seasonal outlook for the Atlantic basin hurricanes almost perfect with a pre-season prediction of 15 named storms. Across the Northern Hemisphere there have been 68 named systems, above the average of 53.CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.
Fortunately after 2 major land falling hurricanes we had another very weak season in terms of violent F3-F5 tornadoes in the U.S. with the least since records started back in 1954.
This week (29 Oct - 4 Nov): Shows yet another strong cold front sweeping across the U.S. as we flip the calendar to November. A big warm up ahead of this front in the East with temperatures surging into the 60s and 70s but then plummeting once again toward the weekend. For the U.S. overall the week trends coolest in 4 years and
Next week (5-11 Nov): More of the same with the U.S. overall trending coldest in 9 years and #1 wettest in 30 years.
With just a few days left in the month of October it's safe to say that the U.S. will end up with the coldest and wettest month in 9 years and snowiest in 5 years. Canada as a whole will also end up the coolest in 9 years but driest in 4 years.
Here at wt360 our goal is to not only predict the weather a year-ahead for Fortune 500 clients but to quantify how small changes in weather can result in big changes in seasonal sales. We call it the Power of 1 Degree.
We've done this 10,000+ times looking at real POS data. As an example, every 1F colder there is a 2% increase in jean and coffee sales, +3% for fall apparel and boots, +5% for heavier coats and your electric bill and a whopping 24% for things like electric blankets. To put this into perspective, the year-over-year drop in temperatures for the Northeast this October had been 11 degrees going from a record hot October last year to the coldest in 9 years this year. That translates to an 11% increase in soup sale, 22% for jeans and coffee, 33% for apparel and boots and a whopping 55% for coats. So, Q3 (Aug - Oct) will end on a very strong note for retailers and seasonal manufacturers.