Star Date 4 October 2017 Wednesday

Captain's Log
WEDNESDAY 4 OCT UPDATE: It looks like the SW Caribbean will flare up Tropical Storm Nate at some point over the next 48 hours, possibly as early as today. Both the US and EURO model take this system due north toward the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.


And all have landfall in the North Central Gulf from Louisiana to the Pan Handle of Florida on Sunday. Most models keep it a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane, but as we saw with Harvey there can be explosive development with not much warning so keep an eye on this! Water temps are in the 84-86F range which is 1 to 3 degrees above average so plenty of heat to support development.

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And after this system moves Northeast it appears we're likely to get a pretty significant cold blast with the seasons first widespread frost and freezes for the Midwest and interior Northeast next week. We're already off to the snowiest start to October in decades with 6.3% of the U.S. (Northern Rocky Mountains) covered in snow - that's early!

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TUESDAY 3 OCT UPDATE: Siberia snowfall update and why it matters. This time of year one climate factor that can foretell of a colder/snowier Winter here in the U.S. is what happens in Siberia. Early widespread snow pack in Siberia in theory allows Arctic Air to get really cold in the Fall and then gets colder and colder as we go through Winter. This makes for a large cold source region that storms can tap into and usher over the pole toward N. America. So far we're off to a strong start with September the coldest in 3 years and below average for Russia-Siberia as a whole and the wettest in 4 years with above average rain and snowfall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.


And the first couple weeks of October look to get off to an impressive start with feet of snow across North Central Siberia with the wettest/snowiest conditions in 5 years with temperatures 2° below average.


Combined with the much colder Pacific and Northwest Atlantic we are shaping up for a very different Winter than the past couple of seasons! As Forest Gump said, "that's all we have to say about that for now" :)

MONDAY 2 OCT: Hard to say happy Monday with the very sad events in Las Vegas. Prayers for everyone.

If you thought this past weekend was on the chilly side, you're right as it was the coldest last weekend of September in 8 years for the Northeast and 6 years for the U.S. overall. After a few week stretch of warmer weather in the East it was a welcome change. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW

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After such a cold late August and front half of September, the Indian Summer like weather was welcomed by some that didn't get enough hot weather (East) this year. Now another big warm up for the East but the next cold front is already impacting the West with this topsy turvy up and down pattern. Another big plunge in temperatures coming for much of the Central and Eastern U.S. next week. This week (2-8 Oct) for the U.S. overall is the warmest in 10 years and driest in 3 years; Next week (9-15 Oct) is the coolest in 8 years and wettest in 3 years for the U.S. overall.

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The Northern Rocky Mountains are getting their second snow storm of the season with 6" to 2' of snow for the higher terrain in Montana and Wyoming.

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Fortunately there isn't one active tropical system on Earth right now so we're enjoying the temporary reprieve. But we'll need to watch the Western Caribbean and SW Atlantic basin as conditions are still moderately favorable for tropical development. Models hint at some threat to Florida late this week and next week but nothing at the moment.

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Ocean temperatures have plummeted from this time last year across the North Pacific (PDO cycle is much colder than last year), Equatorial Pacific (Moderate La Nina could be developing), and much cooler off the U.S. East Coast with up-welling from the recent hurricanes. The sub-surface water temps across the Pacific Ocean show a large pool of cold water just below the surface so this in part explains why most of the models show a moderate to borderline strong La Nina by year end. All points toward a very interesting Winter with a wholesale change from last year! That's all we have to say about that. ;)

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Have a great week and follow us on Facebook and Twitter for daily updates. - Capt Kirk out.