Star Date Monday 20 November 2017

Captain's Log
Monday is especially happy since it's a short holiday week! :)

There are no major changes over the weeks ahead to the overall pattern we'vehad here November which is colder Northeast, very warm Southwest. Operational models have been have been performing very poorly in week two and trending too warm in the East, so we expect that will remain the case. Longer term models show cold weather East in December and warm West. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.

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A strong cold front has brought very strong winds to the Great Lakes and Northwest with the lake effect snow machinecontinuing through today and minor snow showers on Wednesday.

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Thanksgiving Day looks dry for most of us with cold and frosty conditions for the Eastern half of the U.S. with stormy weather limited to the Pacific Northwest and Florida.

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November has clearly made a wholesale change from last year's near record hot month with much colder temperatures for 80% of the country, the Southwest being the one warmer spot. The North Central U.S. and Northeast-Middle Atlantic are the cool spots relative to norms.

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One trick to look at for an overall jet stream weather pattern is soil moisture trends as wetter soil moisture tends to bring colder air temperatures while drier soil moisture values tend to be hotter. Pretty much matches the November trends this year. Recall last year the extremely dry soil moisture conditions were in the East in part explaining the record hot weather a year ago.

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La Niña is officially here but it's an East based La Nina which tends to bring cold Winters across the northern tier of the U.S. and especially from the Upper Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast...a sign of things to come. So, if you're expecting a warm snow-less Winter in the Lakes and Northeast this year we think you're going to be very disappointed!!!

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And for fans who like an occasional Angelina Kirk update...she had fun yesterday at her friends 2-year old least until the mean boy took her xylophone away. Then we had a meltdown. ;) ha

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We hope you have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving holiday weekend! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter for daily updates all week long.

- Captain Kirk out.