wt360 Weather Brief 10 Oct '26: Back Half October Warmest in 9 Yrs., Wettest in 6 Yrs
Captain's Log
10 Oct '26: Happy Saturday! :)
The latest forming Hurricane in 175 years (CAT 2 Isaias) made landfall near Destin, Florida late yesterday evening. Fortunately it weakened rapidly and now the remnants bands of heavy rain are heading to the East Coast. 884K without power in the FL,AL,GA areas. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
We've pushed a big update to our weathertrends360 app with SUNNY AI companion this week to include our 6-day high resolution snowfall forecasts, global lightning alerts, custom global alerts, point-and-click to find a forecast for any mile on Earth including oceans, a dark theme mode and 5 more languages for the app content, Sunny always speaks 200+. The goal with our SUNNY AI companion is to bring a better life in any weather to bring a little less weather risk to life's important milestones. Check it out...YOU'LL LOVE IT! :)
iOS App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/weathertrends360-year-ahead/id6767758303
Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.weathertrends.app
So let's ask SUNNY about the near peak El Niño. It's the strongest in 149 years, but we can already see the opposite cycle La Niña forming under the Western Pacific Ocean, so get ready for La Niña this time next year suggesting this is going to be a wildly volatile weather pattern over the next year.
The current Ocean temperatures vs Last Year show just how dramatically warmer the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is with 10F to 16F warmer waters. But we can also see much colder water's off the U.S. West Coast and warmer along the East Coast. This will all interact together to make a very strong Sub-Tropical Jet Stream bring a parade of storms across the South and East.
Models confirm the peaking El Niño but show the rapid collapse into 2027 toward Neutral by late Spring and then La Niña by Fall 2027.
Wildfire season has been the most active in over 10 years with over 9 million acres burned from over 63K wildfires this year making it the most active in 10+ years, +91% more than last year and +45% above average. This will continue for the next 30-45 days before a wetter West Coast pattern sets up.
FLU is off to the expected slow start with the milder humid weather in the Gulf Coast. Warm Fall's mean late starts similar to what happened in Australia that had a very mild and late FLU season with another Type A season. This has been the common strain the past couple years suggesting herd immunity this Winter.
The Polar Vortex at the North Pole is almost fully developed and relatively strong. A stronger Polar Vortex tends to keep the cold Arctic air bottled up at the North Pole with less frequent plunges into the U.S.
Fall Siberian snowfall is off to a slow start, and this is one indicator suggesting a stronger PV this Winter. Heavier snow over Greenland and far Northern Canada suggests this is where the PV will be anchored in the months ahead.
Fall foliage is off to a much faster start than last year due in part to the Western drought and early colder weather in the Northeast. This is one subtle trigger to get consumers in the Winter mindset and purchase must have Winter items.
Last week (4-10 Oct) across the World shows a warmer week in the U.S. after 3 straight colder YOY weeks nationally. The U.S. trended +2.1F warmer than LY, warmest in 3 years and 3rd warmest in 41 years. The bright spot for Fall merchandise and apparel was the Northeast, storm merchandise in the Southeast and Summer consumables in the HOT Western U.S. Cold 32F days were down -90% nationally, while rainfall was up +4%, wettest in 5 years and 14th wettest in 41 years. This time of year colder/wetter is better for Fall merchandise. Warm and Wet was the general theme across the World population centers.
NFL week #5 shows a warmer much wetter game day trending +3.3F warmer than last year and 6th warmest Sunday in 41 years. But rainfall is way up +177% vs LY and #1 wettest in 41 years thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias along the East Coast. Notice the West Coast starting to turn much cooler with a surge in Fall sales after the extreme heat.
This week (11-17 Oct) shows the dramatic cool down in the West with the heat moving into the Central U.S. Overall the week trends +2.8F warmer than LY, warmest in 31 years with subfreezing cold days down -78%. Rainfall up +74% nationally, most in 7 years and 7th wettest in 41 years. The stormy weather in the West and East will help some outerwear categories.
That time of year to start our 6-day snowfall forecast maps (10-15 Oct) and there's a lot in the Rockies! Some areas in Montana could get 2-3 feet in the highest elevations. So while snowfall is up +267% vs last year, most in 5 years and 8th most in 41 years, only about 3% of the U.S. population getting some snow. Don't forget you can get these in our app with point and click forecasts for your backyard.
Next week (18-24 Oct) shows the Southwest and East Coast the cooler spots with more favorable conditions for Fall merchandise. Very warm in the North Central U.S. Overall the week trends +2.2F warmer than LY and 9th warmest in 41 years. Rainfall down -11% vs LY and 18th least in 41 years. Gulf still worth watching as tropical waves keep the risk for more tropical storm development and heavier rainfall.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (11-24 Oct) shows the New England and the Southwest bright spots for Fall cooler weather items, warmer North Central U.S. and Central Europe. Cold down under for Australia (their Spring) and Argentina, Southern Brazil.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (11-24 Oct) wet weather in the Southwest due to tropical moisture, wet across Australia and Brazil, but very dry for the U.K. and Europe.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
The latest forming Hurricane in 175 years (CAT 2 Isaias) made landfall near Destin, Florida late yesterday evening. Fortunately it weakened rapidly and now the remnants bands of heavy rain are heading to the East Coast. 884K without power in the FL,AL,GA areas. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
We've pushed a big update to our weathertrends360 app with SUNNY AI companion this week to include our 6-day high resolution snowfall forecasts, global lightning alerts, custom global alerts, point-and-click to find a forecast for any mile on Earth including oceans, a dark theme mode and 5 more languages for the app content, Sunny always speaks 200+. The goal with our SUNNY AI companion is to bring a better life in any weather to bring a little less weather risk to life's important milestones. Check it out...YOU'LL LOVE IT! :)
iOS App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/weathertrends360-year-ahead/id6767758303
Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.weathertrends.app
So let's ask SUNNY about the near peak El Niño. It's the strongest in 149 years, but we can already see the opposite cycle La Niña forming under the Western Pacific Ocean, so get ready for La Niña this time next year suggesting this is going to be a wildly volatile weather pattern over the next year.
The current Ocean temperatures vs Last Year show just how dramatically warmer the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is with 10F to 16F warmer waters. But we can also see much colder water's off the U.S. West Coast and warmer along the East Coast. This will all interact together to make a very strong Sub-Tropical Jet Stream bring a parade of storms across the South and East.
Models confirm the peaking El Niño but show the rapid collapse into 2027 toward Neutral by late Spring and then La Niña by Fall 2027.
Wildfire season has been the most active in over 10 years with over 9 million acres burned from over 63K wildfires this year making it the most active in 10+ years, +91% more than last year and +45% above average. This will continue for the next 30-45 days before a wetter West Coast pattern sets up.
FLU is off to the expected slow start with the milder humid weather in the Gulf Coast. Warm Fall's mean late starts similar to what happened in Australia that had a very mild and late FLU season with another Type A season. This has been the common strain the past couple years suggesting herd immunity this Winter.
The Polar Vortex at the North Pole is almost fully developed and relatively strong. A stronger Polar Vortex tends to keep the cold Arctic air bottled up at the North Pole with less frequent plunges into the U.S.
Fall Siberian snowfall is off to a slow start, and this is one indicator suggesting a stronger PV this Winter. Heavier snow over Greenland and far Northern Canada suggests this is where the PV will be anchored in the months ahead.
Fall foliage is off to a much faster start than last year due in part to the Western drought and early colder weather in the Northeast. This is one subtle trigger to get consumers in the Winter mindset and purchase must have Winter items.
Last week (4-10 Oct) across the World shows a warmer week in the U.S. after 3 straight colder YOY weeks nationally. The U.S. trended +2.1F warmer than LY, warmest in 3 years and 3rd warmest in 41 years. The bright spot for Fall merchandise and apparel was the Northeast, storm merchandise in the Southeast and Summer consumables in the HOT Western U.S. Cold 32F days were down -90% nationally, while rainfall was up +4%, wettest in 5 years and 14th wettest in 41 years. This time of year colder/wetter is better for Fall merchandise. Warm and Wet was the general theme across the World population centers.
NFL week #5 shows a warmer much wetter game day trending +3.3F warmer than last year and 6th warmest Sunday in 41 years. But rainfall is way up +177% vs LY and #1 wettest in 41 years thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias along the East Coast. Notice the West Coast starting to turn much cooler with a surge in Fall sales after the extreme heat.
This week (11-17 Oct) shows the dramatic cool down in the West with the heat moving into the Central U.S. Overall the week trends +2.8F warmer than LY, warmest in 31 years with subfreezing cold days down -78%. Rainfall up +74% nationally, most in 7 years and 7th wettest in 41 years. The stormy weather in the West and East will help some outerwear categories.
That time of year to start our 6-day snowfall forecast maps (10-15 Oct) and there's a lot in the Rockies! Some areas in Montana could get 2-3 feet in the highest elevations. So while snowfall is up +267% vs last year, most in 5 years and 8th most in 41 years, only about 3% of the U.S. population getting some snow. Don't forget you can get these in our app with point and click forecasts for your backyard.
Next week (18-24 Oct) shows the Southwest and East Coast the cooler spots with more favorable conditions for Fall merchandise. Very warm in the North Central U.S. Overall the week trends +2.2F warmer than LY and 9th warmest in 41 years. Rainfall down -11% vs LY and 18th least in 41 years. Gulf still worth watching as tropical waves keep the risk for more tropical storm development and heavier rainfall.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (11-24 Oct) shows the New England and the Southwest bright spots for Fall cooler weather items, warmer North Central U.S. and Central Europe. Cold down under for Australia (their Spring) and Argentina, Southern Brazil.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (11-24 Oct) wet weather in the Southwest due to tropical moisture, wet across Australia and Brazil, but very dry for the U.K. and Europe.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)