wt360 Weather Brief 17 Oct '26 Back Half Oct LY cold/wet TY warm/dry
Captain's Log
17 Oct '26: Happy Saturday :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKHhSgwbkrQ
Let's ask SUNNY about Fall and Winter weather trends. The colder YOY periods this Fall have been 2 weeks in late Sep - early Oct, another brief blip this weekend, a more favorable November and a colder late December. 9 out of 13 weeks are also much wetter which helps some Fall outerwear categories but can impeded store traffic. Overall the West shows more favorable trends for late Fall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Don't forget you can get SUNNY intel on our new weathertrends360 app
Apple App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/weathertrends360-year-ahead/id6767758303
Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.weathertrends.app
October appears to trend the warmest in 3 years for the U.S. overall with this warmer finish which suggests heater sales down -20% vs LY but bottled water up +4%. These trends likely to flip as we go into November.
The Polar Vortex has fully developed and it's relatively strong. A strong PV keeps the cold air bottled up at the North Pole, weaker PV allows the cold to spill into the middle latitudes.
The wt360 Winter Severe Weather Outlook shows a very stormy pattern from the West, Deep South and up the East Coast with late season - early Spring storms toward the Midwest. Flooding will be a big concern for many of these areas.
The wt360 Year-Ahead forecast accuracy of the U.S. has done well this Summer and early Fall trending 87% on temperatures and 75% on precipitation.
Even city-level Year-Ahead accuracy has been good with New York City trending 84% on temperatures and 80% on precipitation.
Last week (11-17 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. again trending +1.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 3rd warmest in 41 years. Rainfall was up +90% vs LY, wettest in 9 years and 4th wettest in 41 years due in part to Hurricane Isaias and the remnants of Pacific tropical systems moving into the Southwest. Many areas of the World showed wetter trends, a clear sign of the El Niño influence.
NFL Week #6 shows a much more Fall-like game day with the U.S. trending -9.1F colder than last year and 9th coldest of the past 41 years for the 18 October period. Rainfall way down -85% vs LY and 9th driest for the U.S. overall. This suggests a big uptick in warm beverages and warm apparel after the hot and stormy week last week.
Unfortunately smoke could impact the Rams vs Cardinals game with two big wildfires off to the Southwest of the stadium. These fires are being fueled by low humidity and Santa Anna winds. Rain possible in 4-days, but until then the fires will rage.
This week (18-24 Oct) shows cooler weather along the East Coast, Gulf Coast and Southwest but very warm in the Upper Midwest. The U.S. overall trends -0.4F cooler than LY, coolest in 4 years and 20th coolest in 41 years. This will bring a brief bounce in Fall merchandise apparel sales. Rainfall is down -73% vs LY and 3rd driest in 41 years, a plus for store traffic and Halloween outdoor decor categories.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (17-22 Oct) shows some snow for the Sierras, Central Rockies and flurries in New England but overall not much.
Next week (25-31 Oct) Halloween shows a warming trend in the Eastern half of the U.S. and colder/wetter/snowier in the West. Expect a big pent-up demand surge in Fall merchandise sales in the West and a slowdown in the East. The U.S. overall trends +5.2F warmer than LY and 12th warmest in 41 years. Rainfall down -50% vs LY, driest in 10 years and 12th driest in 41 years, again the West is the stormy spot - they'll take it!
The 2-week (18-31 Oct) World Temperature Outlook shows the Western U.S. and West Canada and Western Europe the favorable spots for Fall merchandise.
The 2-week (18-31 Oct) World Precipitation Outlook shows very wet conditions for the Western U.S., Mexico, most of Brazil and Europe. Clear signs of an El Niño response.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKHhSgwbkrQ
Let's ask SUNNY about Fall and Winter weather trends. The colder YOY periods this Fall have been 2 weeks in late Sep - early Oct, another brief blip this weekend, a more favorable November and a colder late December. 9 out of 13 weeks are also much wetter which helps some Fall outerwear categories but can impeded store traffic. Overall the West shows more favorable trends for late Fall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Don't forget you can get SUNNY intel on our new weathertrends360 app
Apple App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/weathertrends360-year-ahead/id6767758303
Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.weathertrends.app
October appears to trend the warmest in 3 years for the U.S. overall with this warmer finish which suggests heater sales down -20% vs LY but bottled water up +4%. These trends likely to flip as we go into November.
The Polar Vortex has fully developed and it's relatively strong. A strong PV keeps the cold air bottled up at the North Pole, weaker PV allows the cold to spill into the middle latitudes.
The wt360 Winter Severe Weather Outlook shows a very stormy pattern from the West, Deep South and up the East Coast with late season - early Spring storms toward the Midwest. Flooding will be a big concern for many of these areas.
The wt360 Year-Ahead forecast accuracy of the U.S. has done well this Summer and early Fall trending 87% on temperatures and 75% on precipitation.
Even city-level Year-Ahead accuracy has been good with New York City trending 84% on temperatures and 80% on precipitation.
Last week (11-17 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. again trending +1.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 3rd warmest in 41 years. Rainfall was up +90% vs LY, wettest in 9 years and 4th wettest in 41 years due in part to Hurricane Isaias and the remnants of Pacific tropical systems moving into the Southwest. Many areas of the World showed wetter trends, a clear sign of the El Niño influence.
NFL Week #6 shows a much more Fall-like game day with the U.S. trending -9.1F colder than last year and 9th coldest of the past 41 years for the 18 October period. Rainfall way down -85% vs LY and 9th driest for the U.S. overall. This suggests a big uptick in warm beverages and warm apparel after the hot and stormy week last week.
Unfortunately smoke could impact the Rams vs Cardinals game with two big wildfires off to the Southwest of the stadium. These fires are being fueled by low humidity and Santa Anna winds. Rain possible in 4-days, but until then the fires will rage.
This week (18-24 Oct) shows cooler weather along the East Coast, Gulf Coast and Southwest but very warm in the Upper Midwest. The U.S. overall trends -0.4F cooler than LY, coolest in 4 years and 20th coolest in 41 years. This will bring a brief bounce in Fall merchandise apparel sales. Rainfall is down -73% vs LY and 3rd driest in 41 years, a plus for store traffic and Halloween outdoor decor categories.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (17-22 Oct) shows some snow for the Sierras, Central Rockies and flurries in New England but overall not much.
Next week (25-31 Oct) Halloween shows a warming trend in the Eastern half of the U.S. and colder/wetter/snowier in the West. Expect a big pent-up demand surge in Fall merchandise sales in the West and a slowdown in the East. The U.S. overall trends +5.2F warmer than LY and 12th warmest in 41 years. Rainfall down -50% vs LY, driest in 10 years and 12th driest in 41 years, again the West is the stormy spot - they'll take it!
The 2-week (18-31 Oct) World Temperature Outlook shows the Western U.S. and West Canada and Western Europe the favorable spots for Fall merchandise.
The 2-week (18-31 Oct) World Precipitation Outlook shows very wet conditions for the Western U.S., Mexico, most of Brazil and Europe. Clear signs of an El Niño response.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)