wt360 Weather Brief 2 May '26 Cooler/Wet East - Hotter/Dry West
Captain's Log
2 May '26: Happy Saturday! :)
We've upgraded our wt360 robot to be smarter and cuter and today's question is how the coldest 2 May Saturday in 21 years will impact seasonal category sales. Not good with most categories way down vs last year's warm start to Q2. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The East is very unfavorable while the West and Plains are better. Temperatures typically drive demand for seasonal items, while drier weather helps store traffic for non-seasonal categories. Clearly HOT categories will be hardest hit. The past three weekends have all trended cooler and drier than last year and that trend continues for the next few weekends.
Zero doubt that we're headed for a major El Nino with the sub-surface water temperatures a whopping +6C above average. Can't recall the last time sub-surface temperatures were this warm over such a larger area of the Pacific.
As this warm water comes to the surface it will cool some, but you only +2C above average water temperatures to have a major El Nino. This one very likely to be a top 5 event.
Severe Weather picked up some ground, especially hail cases with 77 tornadoes since last week, 557 hail events and 556 wind events. All categories are above average, but only hail is above last year's levels.
A bit of a lull this week with severe storms, but still some higher risk in Florida today, then shifting north early next week. 
Wildfires are the worst in 10+ years both in terms of number of acres burned and number of fires. This will be a common theme until the wetter Summer-Fall pattern sets up with the pending El Nino.
Last Week (26 Apr -2 May around the World (end of Q1) shows U.S. temperatures trending -5.4F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 8th coldest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days were down -3% vs LY, least in 3 years and 16th most of the past 41 years. Rainfall was up +11% vs LY and 15th wettest in 41 years. These are generally very unfavorable trends for Spring seasonal category sales. Canada continued with their colder trends. Wetter weather moved into India, Brazil.
This week 3-9 May (week prior Mother's Day weekend) shows the same general pattern of colder/wetter East, hotter/drier Northwest. The U.S. overall trends -2.5F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days down -15% vs LY, least in 7 years and 13th least in 41 years, while rainfall is down -31% vs LY, driest in 3 years and 19th driest of the past 41 years. These are somewhat unfavorable trends, especially hot seasonal categories, cold beverages, pool chemicals, etc.
Next week 10-16 May shows some moderating trend with building heat in the West, slightly cool East. The U.S. overall trends -1.1F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 6th warmest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days still down -43% vs LY, least in 5 years and 15th most in 41 years, while rainfall is again down -43% vs LY, driest in 4 years and 11th driest of the past 41 years. This time of year, hotter/drier weather is best for seasonal category sales, so the West is clearly best. 
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (3-16 May) shows cooler trends for the Eastern U.S. and Eastern Canada with a cooling trend for Europe. 
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (3-16 May) shows some rain for the parched Southeast U.S. and Southern - Western Brazil for their 2nd season crops, while Central Europe is generally well below average rainfall - wetter in Spain.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
We've upgraded our wt360 robot to be smarter and cuter and today's question is how the coldest 2 May Saturday in 21 years will impact seasonal category sales. Not good with most categories way down vs last year's warm start to Q2. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The East is very unfavorable while the West and Plains are better. Temperatures typically drive demand for seasonal items, while drier weather helps store traffic for non-seasonal categories. Clearly HOT categories will be hardest hit. The past three weekends have all trended cooler and drier than last year and that trend continues for the next few weekends.
Zero doubt that we're headed for a major El Nino with the sub-surface water temperatures a whopping +6C above average. Can't recall the last time sub-surface temperatures were this warm over such a larger area of the Pacific.
As this warm water comes to the surface it will cool some, but you only +2C above average water temperatures to have a major El Nino. This one very likely to be a top 5 event.
Severe Weather picked up some ground, especially hail cases with 77 tornadoes since last week, 557 hail events and 556 wind events. All categories are above average, but only hail is above last year's levels.
A bit of a lull this week with severe storms, but still some higher risk in Florida today, then shifting north early next week. 
Wildfires are the worst in 10+ years both in terms of number of acres burned and number of fires. This will be a common theme until the wetter Summer-Fall pattern sets up with the pending El Nino.
Last Week (26 Apr -2 May around the World (end of Q1) shows U.S. temperatures trending -5.4F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 8th coldest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days were down -3% vs LY, least in 3 years and 16th most of the past 41 years. Rainfall was up +11% vs LY and 15th wettest in 41 years. These are generally very unfavorable trends for Spring seasonal category sales. Canada continued with their colder trends. Wetter weather moved into India, Brazil.
This week 3-9 May (week prior Mother's Day weekend) shows the same general pattern of colder/wetter East, hotter/drier Northwest. The U.S. overall trends -2.5F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days down -15% vs LY, least in 7 years and 13th least in 41 years, while rainfall is down -31% vs LY, driest in 3 years and 19th driest of the past 41 years. These are somewhat unfavorable trends, especially hot seasonal categories, cold beverages, pool chemicals, etc.
Next week 10-16 May shows some moderating trend with building heat in the West, slightly cool East. The U.S. overall trends -1.1F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 6th warmest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days still down -43% vs LY, least in 5 years and 15th most in 41 years, while rainfall is again down -43% vs LY, driest in 4 years and 11th driest of the past 41 years. This time of year, hotter/drier weather is best for seasonal category sales, so the West is clearly best. 
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (3-16 May) shows cooler trends for the Eastern U.S. and Eastern Canada with a cooling trend for Europe. 
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (3-16 May) shows some rain for the parched Southeast U.S. and Southern - Western Brazil for their 2nd season crops, while Central Europe is generally well below average rainfall - wetter in Spain.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)